The Laurent Gbagbo factor has to come into effect – Melusi Sibanda

Speculating on the result of any election, particularly the up and coming one in Zimbabwe is an extremely dangerous game. However, that with that said we need to prepare ourselves for the repercussions and retort

in the aftermath of a ZANU PF defeat.  I only mention this scenario because it is the only one that could be potentially explosive. You see, ZANU PF does not go into any election in a ‘what if we lose?’ state of mind. For them it’s a case of ‘when we win’ even if it is clear that they do not have anything even close to a majority of support within the country. This is the exact attitude Laurent Gbagbo went into the election with in 2011 in Cote d’Ivoire and his defeat led to him making a series of bad decisions and we all know how that ended.

My point being – Led by SADC, the international community need to exhibit and communicate the Gbagbo ‘case study’ to the powers that be in Zimbabwe. A warning has to be issued to the effect that should the losing party should bow out gracefully and use legal procedures if they feel hard done by. SADC has to come out and say ‘EVEN ZANU PF CAN LOSE!’ A promise has to be made to all Zimbabweans that if ZANU PF refuses to accept defeat at the polls life will indeed be immediately made extremely tough for them by entire region and the world community at large. A few examples should be made swiftly beginning with the confiscation of properties and closures of bank accounts, expelling of relatives etc...

Should the security situation deteriorate and the ZANU PF youths begin to mobilise against the civilians, as is bound to happen, then the SADC may have to negotiate directly with the Zimbabwean military over the heads of ZANU PF in order to maintain or restore order within the country. If there is a lack of co-operation by ZANU this time around there may be more muscle power behind the SADC and the international community to discuss another GPA; however this time the winning Party will gain executive power with ZANU PF representatives only being allowed minor privileges in exchange for their good behaviour and general withdrawal from Zimbabwean politics.

Things are definitely getting edgy to say the least as the polls approach, however ZANU PF has to know that

if certain proposals are not accepted then the Laurent Gbagbo factor may have to come into effect! The sheer thought of Bob and Grace emerging from the basement of the Meikles or Sheraton Hotel is one to savour!  It is very unlikely but not impossible, as has been witnessed over the past decade in world politics.

‘We are Watching’

Melusi Sibanda – Information & Publicity Secretary ROHRZim/Bradford Branch