An Analysis of the International Crisis Group’s new report exploring various election scenarios for Zimbabwe – Melusi Sibanda

http://allafrica.com/stories/201305100510.html

This report should be taken seriously as it explores some very gloomy scenarios for Zimbabwe and the entire region especially if they remain unprepared for the possible outcomes of the election. The ICG report castigates the international community particularly the recent EU and US actions that request ‘credible and peaceful’ rather than ‘free and fair’ elections from ZANU PF in order to lift targeted sanctions and provide new investments.

Already the fear, violence and intimidation are contradicting ZANU PF’s commitment to peace. And in any case – what constitutes credible? We already know that there is limited funding available to the Zimbabwe Electoral Committee to ensure the integrity of the voters roll. Recently the chairperson of the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission resigned from his post in the ZEC citing the body's lack of independence and government support, and was replaced by another commissioner with close ties to ZANU PF. There’s a shocker!!!

The ZRP and the Defence Forces openly support ZANU PF and we all know that they played a pivotal role in the 2008 violence that secured Mugabe's victory, for which none were held accountable.

SADC’s priority of ‘containment’ still remains vague and the question still remains – Will  SADC take a more aggressive role now by increasing its presence and power in Zimbabwe, as many of the intimidation practices deployed in previous elections are already underway?’ Unsurprisingly we’re all very sceptical!

I personally believe that ZANU PF’s ‘winner take all’ mentality is the biggest threat to peace and stability in the region. As the article explains - ‘Some in ZANU-PF feel threatened by the erosion of economic opportunities that would come with losing power, while others fear prosecution for human rights violations.’ Sh#t is real!!!

A loss for ZANU PF would signify increased violence and that is the exact attitude the SADC should be wagging their finger about.

The report also provides recommendations for SADC and the Zimbabwean GPA government to follow however I am not convinced that ZANU PF or the painfully dozy government of Jacob Zuma would be in any rush to conform to these suggestions.

Zimbabwe is at yet another cross road. The future looks grim but all is not lost yet. With help from all human rights activists, organisations, journalists, SADC, UN, EU we can put pressure on ZANU PF, by drawing a few red lines and saying the following;

-          If the elections are not free and fair and if any violence and intimidation is reported targeted sanctions are back on.

-          We will also begin a huge campaign to set the wheel going for a massive indictment of ZANU PF, ZRP & ZDF officials for human rights violations over the past 3 decades.

The time has come to let them know what’s over the horizon if they do not conform these recommendations. This is the final opportunity for ZANU PF to redeem themselves.

The full report can be seen here- http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/southern-africa/zimbabwe/202-zimbabwe-election-scenarios.pdf.

‘We are Watching’

Melusi Sibanda  - Information & Publicity Secretary

Restoration of Human Rights Zimbabwe – Bradford Branch