Pride comes before a fall (by Justice Sibanda)

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-11548-Ncube+spurns+Tsvangirai+alliance/news.aspx

THE MDC denied it had been engaged in talks to form an election coalition Friday as party leader Welshman Ncube filed his nomination papers to run for the presidency against President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. Reports yesterday led to speculation that the MDC formations would form a grand coalition with Mavambo Kusile’s Simba Makoni and Dumiso Dabengwa’s Zapu for the election which Mugabe called for July 31.

Zimbabwean Parties willing to work together to oust Mugabe (by Justice Sibanda)

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-11530-Parties+mull+new+Movement+for+Change/news.aspx

PLANS are underway to form a grand coalition to challenge President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu PF party at the next elections, Mavombo Kusile leader Simba Makoni and Zapu’s Dumiso Dabengwa have revealed. “We are working towards coming up with a movement for change,” Makoni told a recent public meeting organised by the Media Institute of Southern Africa (Misa) in Harare.

The former Zanu PF politburo member and finance minister however insisted that the coalition would not participate in the polls unless key reforms were put in place. The coalition is expected to include the Makoni’s Mavambo, both MDC formations as well as Dumiso Dabengwa’s Zapu.


It seems that the Leaders of the opposition are finally putting aside their squabbles and focusing on the  big picture. 

WE ARE WATCHING!!!  

  

Justice Melusi Sibanda  
Organising Secretary – ROHR Zimbabwe/Bradford Branch

The Beginning of the End- by Kwanele Khupe

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-11514-Mugabe+off+to+see+medics+in+Singapore/news.aspx

It would seem this is the beginning of the end for President Robert Mugabe, with ill health and old age taking its toll on the eve of the elections. Isn't it ironic that when Mandela is critically ill he is treated in South Africa but President Mugabe has to fly to Singapore for treatment. maybe he should have governed his country alot better but I guess it's all too little to late and hindsight is a luxury at this point even he can't afford.

Kwanele Khupe

European Union current policy on Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's 2013 general elections: A genuine wind of change? 

Author: Nils TENSI, under the supervision of Manuel MANRIQUE GIL  

Hopes are high that elections in 2013 will usher in significant political changes in Zimbabwe.    

• Uncertainty and political rivalry necessitate sensitivity from all actors. 

In 2013, Zimbabweans are to elect a new parliament and president. While the exact date of the ballot — the first since a new constitution was approved in March 2013 — remains unclear, hopes are high that the election could become a landmark event for the democratic transition of the country. Zimbabwe can move beyond 33 years of hegemonic rule under Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), possibly allowing Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to lead the country's political change. However, uncertainty still obscures the political climate, and a peaceful transfer of power will demand great sensitivity from all actors involved — foreign, as well as domestic. And even if meaningful change does occur, it is far from certain that a new government will be able — and committed — to pave the way for Zimbabwe's democratic consolidation.

• The legacy of a three-decade 'one-man show'  

Since the 2008/2009 crisis, Zimbabwe has been ruled by a coalition government, leading to first signs of socio-economic progress.    

During the last elections held in 2008, Mugabe's ZANU-PF did not win outright at the presidential ballot box — a first since 1980. Following the first-round victory of MDC leader Tsvangirai, an electoral crisis broke out, leading to rampant violence, intimidation of ZANU-PF opponents and the withdrawal of Tsvangirai's candidacy. In the face of strong international pressure, both parties agreed to form a power-sharing Global Political Agreement (GPA), brokered by South African President Thabo Mbeki.
The Government of National Unity (GNU), which took office in February 2009, has been marked by ongoing ZANU-PF dominance and MDC officials' frustration with being strategically sidelined.

This year's elections are a source of both optimism and worry.

Despite slow socio- economic progress, Zimbabwe remains a low income country and holds one of the world's lowest scores in the UN human development index. Against this background, the polls are being awaited with excitement over potential changes, but also anxiety of renewed violence.

• The men in the ring: David and Goliath?   

ZANU-PF and the MDC continue to dominate the electoral landscape.    

 
As in 2008, ZANU-PF and MDC are currently the two dominant parties. Yet neither has indicated any intention to extend the current power-sharing deal beyond 2013. ZANU-PF wants to shrug off its burdensome partner after more than four years of compromise, while the MDC wishes finally to assume control over politics. The presidential race is again turning into a duel between the parties' leaders, Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Although the outcome is uncertain, a number of factors are likely to affect the polls:
ZANU-PF has adopted anti- western rhetoric focusing on 'black empowerment'. Yet the party suffers from corruption, public disappointment and Mugabe's advanced age.       

 ZANU-PF has adopted a populist policy, capitalising on anti-western moods amongst the people. Under the umbrella term 'black empowerment', the party promotes land redistribution and economic restructuring in favour of black Zimbabweans. In April, ZANU-PF drafted a law that would allow the expropriation of foreign investments without compensation. The party controls crucial state mechanisms, including the army, police and large elements of the media, allowing it to manage information and to intimidate the opposition. Recent reports that the party has revived the National Youth Service — nicknamed the 'Green Bombers' and notorious for its anti-MDC violence in the 2000s — have sparked new fears amongst the opposition. On the other hand, ZANU-PF has faced numerous corruption scandals and steadily growing public frustration over its inability to improve citizens' quality of life. Infighting over political power has also grown in the party, encouraged by 89-year old Mugabe's physical and mental frailty. Mugabe is generally seen as 'the glue that holds the party together', so ZANU-PF may well dissolve into feuding factions if no suitable successor is found.

The MDC presents itself as a young, energetic alternative to ZANU-PF.      
Yet its reputation has been weakened by Tsvangirai's behaviour, internal corruption and the inability to improve politics under the GNU.    

 The MDC, in contrast, has tried to capitalise on public discontent, presenting itself as the energetic alternative to an aged, dusty and corrupt ZANU-PF elite. This has led Tsvangirai to emerge victorious from the first round of elections in 2008, although the subsequent crisis eventually forced him to withdraw his candidacy. The MDC enjoys backing from many foreign actors in the region and from overseas. Yet the party also faces numerous problems2. First, its reputation has suffered critical blows from a range of personal lapses by its leader: numerous sexual adventures of 61 year-old Tsvangirai, including the pregnancy of a 23-year old woman and his denial of paternity; reports of growing corruption and financial mismanagement within the MDC headquarters; and Tsvangirai's refusal to accept criticism of his increasingly centralised leadership style3. What is more, the MDC's participation in government for more than four years — although in a weak position — renders it increasingly difficult to argue that it could bring about a radical turn for the better. Disenchanted with the party's inability to trigger decisive change, many young urbanites — have stopped attending the party's once-overcrowded rallies and have sought other arenas to voice their discontent. Pentecostal churches have seen their popularity skyrocket, and new political alternatives have emerged, including the recently revived Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU). Evidence that MDC youth groups have engaged in violent campaigns has further undermined the party's credibility.
The political outlook, as a result, has changed drastically.
                                                                 
Public opinion has shifted, now slightly favouring ZANU-PF over the MDC.

Recent surveys suggest that ZANU-PF by now attracts more public support than the MDC, a total turnaround from 2008/20096. The MDC may yet regain control by forming a coalition with a third party. Yet Tsvangirai's chances of finding a suitable partner appear meagre, since he broke ties with a smaller MDC faction led by Welshman Ncube, and other promising parties are lacking.

• The new constitution: An improvement, if not a panacea   

The recent constitutional referendum offers ground for hope, but does not guarantee free and fair elections.    
   
On 16 March 2013, Zimbabweans approved a new constitution in a referendum which was widely praised for its peaceful character. Although some observers have heralded this ballot as a dress rehearsal for the elections, such optimistic assessments neglect two crucial points: 1. The constitutional draft was supported by all major parties, while the elections will highlight dividing lines between the camps. 2. The referendum had no immediate political implications, while the election will end the current coalition cabinet and mark a return to higher stakes in the form of 'winner-takes-all' politics.

Still, the new constitution introduces some important checks and balances.

Nonetheless, the constitution — signed into law by Mugabe on 22 May — introduces various safeguards, including: the right of the parliament to oust the president, the establishment of a Constitutional Court, and the requirement that parliament approve a state of emergency. A presidential term limitation is established, albeit with no retroactive application. This effectively allows Mugabe to stand for the upcoming election and — age and health permitting — even to run again in the subsequent ballot.

Cooperation under the GNU promises an improved political dialogue. 

More than four years of the GNU have also permitted a level of cross-party communication and cooperation unthinkable in 2008. Combined with the country's slight socio-economic improvements, this may hinder the spread of incendiary rhetoric that contributed to the violent crisis in the last elections.

But other difficulties remain. First, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has yet to set a polling date, although the Parliament will dissolve on 29 June 2013, and voter registration has been underway since the end of April. ZANU-PF favours early elections, owing to concerns over 89-year old Mugabe's ability to endure another campaign. The MDC, by contrast, is pushing for a later date, arguing that electoral reforms are needed first. As for now, most experts expect the polls to take place at some point in September. Second, Zimbabwe is close to bankruptcy, raising serious concerns about financing the election. Foreign offers have been declined by Harare, citing donors' attempts to interfere with domestic proceedings. Third, electoral fraud and political violence have reappeared: Tsvangirai's office was recently raided, the human rights lawyer Beatrice Mtetwa detained, and the early phase of voter registration has been dogged by irregularities. These issues all vitiate the prospect of successful elections.

• International stakeholders: Proceeding with caution and altering political goals?   

International observers have watched developments, but hold little leverage.    

Flickers of hope for a stronger role of international mediators have been clouded by ZANU-PF's intensifying 'anti-colonialist' rhetoric and cat-and- mouse games with donors, which included a March 2013 ban on non- African election observers9; an April 2013 request for UN election funding, withdrawn only days later over alleged attempts of interfering with domestic politics10; and a last-minute refusal of entry to an approved UN election assessment team in April (eventually allowed in). A delegation from the European Parliament's Development Committee travelled without disruptions in early May, but international relations remain tense.

African actors enjoy greater — though still limited — negotiating power with Harare.    
 
As guarantors of the GPA, southern African partners exercise a stronger grip on Zimbabwe than those from further afield. South Africa's President Jacob Zuma, in particular, has been a key diplomat calling for political reform. Yet international support for ZANU-PF opponents may also undermine their credibility. Citing international sympathy for the MDC, for example, Mugabe has accused Tsvangirai of adopting foreign-imposed policies and of undermining the popular 'black empowerment' agenda.

Contrary to many expectations, a government change may have only a slim impact on democratic quality.
Against this complicated background, two main lessons emerge:
 Government turnover does not guarantee democratic change in Zimbabwe. ZANU-PF lacks democratic roots; but the MDC has, for its part, done little to prove its trustworthiness. Rather than asking who is in power, international analysts might want to put a stronger focus on how to actually improve Zimbabwe's political culture and institutions.

Foreign actors need to act very carefully to avoid unintended outcomes.

 Second, foreign actors need to be aware of the high degree of suspicion prevalent in Zimbabwe. The international community should act with great care to avoid unintentionally causing a counterproductive backlash.

Cash strapped Zanu-PF seeking finance for campaigns from white commercial farmers - by Kwanele Khupe

http://zimbabweelection.com/2013/06/20/broke-zanu-pf-begs-remaining-white-commercial-farmers/

Broke Zanu-PF have found themselves in a quagmire, the disfunctional party is low on campaign funds in the run up to the August elections and they have stooped so low as to ask for money from the very people they despise. In an act of desperation they have summoned the remaining white commercial farmers and begged for money to finance campaigns. Governor Christopher Mushowe held a meeting last week with the farmers asking them to fund his campaign.

There was a catch ofcourse, all the farmers that don't 'donate' some money would risk seizure of their commercial farms.

Kwanele Khupe

Is Zimbabwe Headed For a Disputed Election Result??- By Kwanele Khupe

http://zimbabweelection.com/2013/06/19/analysis-zimbabwe-heading-for-a-disputed-election-result/

With a little time to implement the reforms demanded by SADC are Zimbabwe political parties leading Zimbabwe to an inevitab;le disputed elections. Will the 2 week election extension date to August 14 be enough for the implementation of the SADC resolutions or a disputed election result is inevitable which will leave Zimbabwe in another deadlock and delaying the removal of the tyrant that has held the country at ransom since independence....time will tell!!!!

Kwanele Khupe

Robert Mugabe Has Clearly Lost His Marbles- by Kwanele Khupe

http://zimbabweelection.com/2013/06/19/mugabe-i-am-the-victim-of-media-abuse/

Kwanele Khupe

ZIMBABWE LAND DISTRIBUTION PART 2 – INEVITABLE!! –by Melusi Sibanda

Land redistribution is most necessary and unavoidable in countries with a highly unequal distribution of land. Such is the case today in Zimbabwe and in such a scenario the case for redistributing property rights from the rich to the poor or from large-scale to small-scale farmers is strong for the sake of conflict prevention, equity, economic growth, jobs, and poverty reduction.

In Zimbabwe fairness is perhaps the most important issue to worry about in our current land agenda due to the fact that a handful of ZANU PF stalwarts and their associates have appropriated themselves the best pieces of land. Today, as it was when the ‘white man’ controlled the lands, the most fertile lands in the country are occupied by very large,  sprawling farms that, on average, are underused. Now there lies the difference between then and now – UNDERUSED!!!

The people of Zimbabwe have very strong feelings about how and by whom the land is being used by because the overall area of land in a country is fixed, and also because agriculture should be an important source of income for many people. In Zimbabwe the matter of equity is particularly pronounced when it comes to land because communities now feel that the land was not equitably distributed to as many people as possible. A countryside populated by small family farmers tilling the land would correspond in many peoples’ minds to a system that is fair. This is not the case in Zimbabwe after the land redistribution effort conducted by ZANU PF.

As we have already learnt from our most recent history, unresolved land issues will lead to violence, civil unrest, or even civil war especially if we continue ignore them.

Mark my words, Land Redistribution Part 2 is coming to Zimbabwe!! All those who benefited unfairly from the ZANU PF land grab, don’t unpack your bags just yet!!!

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2653/488960PUB0REPLACEMENT0FILE09780821376270.pdf?sequence=1

Melusi Sibanda – Information and Publicity Secretary ROHR Zimbabwe Bradford Branch

So what's next??

http://www.crisiszimbabwe.org/

Let me begin by commending SADC for supporting the liberties and rights of the people of Zimbabwe.What is generally being reported in the media is that Mugabe had buckled under pressure from SADC.   The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) said Monday it was forging ahead with preparations for a July 31 poll even after regional leaders directed the ruling coalition asks the Constitutional Court to extend the deadline for the vote. The Zec chairperson told editors in Harare that elections have been legally proclaimed and said the resolution of leaders of the 15-nation Southern African Development Community (Sadc) who met in Mozambique on Saturday and directed government to seek a variation of the proclaimed date will not alter their preparations. However JUSTICE Minister Patrick Chinamasa on Tuesday filed an appeal against the Constitutional Court ruling ordering elections to be held on July 31. As it stands MDC-T has already accused Paddy Chinamasa of filing a court application so he deliberately loses the case and the Constitution Court upholds the decision that the elections must be held on the 31st of July. There are widespread reports of scores of people in Harare being unable to register as voters amid allegations that government officials were deliberately frustrating them. 

This along with the continued deployment of  military personnel in communities to intimidate and harass dissenting voices does not I believe set the scene for a Free and Fair election. 

 Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) released a statement on Tuesday June 18 calling on SADC to deploy observers.
“Given the short period to elections we therefore appeal to the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) to urgently deploy both long and short term observers to promote an human rights environment conducive for credible, free and fair elections.
“We strongly believe that, some of the aforementioned reforms can still be put in place if there is political will of ensuring the holding of a credible election"

WE ARE WATCHING!!!  

  

Justice Melusi Sibanda  
Organising Secretary – ROHR Zimbabwe/Bradford Branch

Things fall apart – Again.... as the UN Withdraws Zimbabwe election funding (By Melusi Sibanda)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/zimbabwe-withdraws-un-election-funding-request-chinamasa-says.html

Well, well, well, it’s beginning to look like the circus is back in town in the form of ZANU PF. According to Patrick Chinamasa Zimbabwe will now pay for its own election – with what money Paddy? The UN has withdrawn its offer to foot the bill because ZANU considers the UN’s imposed funding conditions unacceptable. Now this is the reactionary and error prone ZANU PF we all know.  

An interesting quote from Paddy ;

“The UN avenue for sourcing resources for our elections is now closed,” Chinamasa told diplomats and journalists late yesterday in the capital, Harare. “The UN team insisted on coming on their terms. The ball is now back in our court.”

Well done Paddy, you’ve certainly put the UN in their place! (sarcasm). You don’t have a court you silly man!

Now the question is are we back to square one?

We Are Watching!!

Melusi Sibanda – information & Publicity Secretary ROHRZim Bradford Branch

SADC does have our backs after-all!! (by Justice Sibanda)

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-11427-Zuma+slams+breaks+on+Mugabe+poll+bid/news.aspx

LED by President Jacob Zuma, regional leaders forced Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe to postpone presidential and parliamentary elections by 14 to 30 days, at a dramatic summit in Maputo on Saturday. It is reported that Mr Mugabe has since agreed to hold the elections on August 14. 

It remains to be seen whether the much needed security sector and media reforms can be implemented and that the impartiality of the security forces can be guaranteed between now and the 14th of August. As long as our leaders have the will to do what is right for Zimbabwe anything is possible.

WE ARE WATCHING!!!  

  

Justice Melusi Sibanda  
Organising Secretary – ROHR Zimbabwe/Bradford Branch

So RGM has made his first move - Predictable!! (by melusi sibanda)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22889406

So 'our dear' (sarcasm) Robert has triggered the presidential decree to enable the constitutional ruling to hold the election by 31 July 2013 to go ahead - there's a surprise!! (more sarcasm)

I know Morgan has come out fighting today, but I hope that he and the other opposition leaders were ready for this. We all kind of knew something like this was going to happen, the question was when. Today's retaliation by Morgan should just be a formality because we all predicted that ZANU PF would certainly try to undermine voter registration at one point or another. The idea is to create a mythical atmosphere of a non-existent advantage over MDC.

I am really unsure what the next legal 'move' is, however one hopes that this backfires on ZANU PF and actually spurs on more potential voters to register. If this happened it would be the first in a series of devastating blows against the ZANU machine!

We Are Watching

Melusi Sibanda - Information & Publicity Sercretary  ROHR Zimbabwe /Bradford Branch

BREAKING NEWS: MUGABE SETS ZIM VOTE FOR JULY 31

http://zimbabweelection.com/

Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe on Thursday set July 31 as the date for the country’s general election.

The date was published in the Government Gazette.

The election date announcement follows an order last month by the Constitutional Court that the general election must be held by July 31. The current Parliament ends on June 29

Amnesty International urges human rights prioritisation ahead of poll

http://www.thezimbabwean.co/human-rights/66193/amnesty-urges-human-rights-prioritisation.html

Southern African leaders must ensure human rights are prioritised in the run-up to elections in Zimbabwe, Amnesty International said ahead of Saturday's summit on the country. The Southern African Development Committee meets in Maputo, Mozambique to review the electoral process in Zimbabwe, where a general election would be held before July 31 according to a recent Constitutional Court ruling.

CSOs petition SADC on elections (by Justice Sibanda)

http://www.thezimbabwean.co/news/zimbabwe/66082/csos-petition-sadc-on-elections.html

Civil society organisations have called on the Southern African Development Community to remain true to its commitment to the conduct of “free, fair and peaceful” democratic elections in Zimbabwe. In a petition to the regional body ahead of a postponed extraordinary summit on Zimbabwe, CSOs said the commitment should be based on SADC’s own Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections.

Morgan Tsvangirai and Robert Mugabe

They called on SADC “not recognise the legitimacy of any election result that is materially tainted by violence, intimidation, or obstruction or manipulation of the processes of registration and voting”.

We hope that if SADC is going to help fund the elections, to ensure that the funding comes with conditions that ensure that the Zimbabwe Government is committed to following the Sadc guidelines on free and fair elections.

WE ARE WATCHING!!!  

  

Justice Melusi Sibanda  
Organising Secretary – ROHR Zimbabwe/Bradford Branch

Finally, someone's speaking our language!! (by Melusi Sibanda)

US puts pressure on Zimbabwe to allow international observers | Zimbabwe Election: Latest News & Voting Information

Meetings and Demos PHOTOS 2012 & 2013

Melusi Sibanda @ "we are watching campaign"

Justice Sibanda  @ "we are watching campaign"

Add caption

Peter Jaure & Lorraine Mudgiwa  @ "we are watching campaign"

Bradford Branch Launch

Technology and social networking - our eye in sky in this Election (by Melusi Sibanda)

Well, I’ve been on a hiatus for 2 weeks just observing the activities and happenings on the Zimbabwe elections. How the hell did we manage to live without the internet? One thing’s for certain, the information is out there, and when it comes down to the crunch nothing can be swept under the carpet. No vote rigging, violence, false arrests or corruption will go unseen and unreported.

The good news is that internet is covering all aspects of the Zimbabwean election, from on the ground voter registration blogging to campaigning and even neutral observations. The blogs are colossal and illimitable and some of the websites tremendous. The reservoir of information is so extensive and boundless that one has to be careful how they take it all in. There will always some dodgy reporting, but it’s up to the reader to be intelligent enough to sieve through the data and eliminate the rubbish.  It is important that both the writer and reader are able to differentiate between opinion and fact. A note to all writers - We can all have our own opinions but we can’t have our own facts!

On the campaign circuit there has been a change in campaign strategy, with ZANU PF trying to sell RGM as ‘Mr Nice Guy’ through his Facebook campaign and even appearing Dali Tambo’s People of the South Show. I’m not sure how this direction has worked-out for ZANU however one senses that it may have back-fired as it has drawn a lot of ugly debate within and outside Zimbabwe. Meanwhile Morgan has held what seems like a dignified and softer Facebook campaign, however I’m not sure if this will be enough to gain him victory over the ZANU campaign, especially when it switches to aggressive mode.

Then we have the issue of the incongruous court ruling stating that the Election must be held before August 2013. But again as Zimbos nothing shocks us anymore – who knows, this could work as an advantage for the common man on the ground with ZANU PF not having too much time to set up the ground-work for their physical assault on the masses.

As I’ve already stated, whatever happens the world is watching and the news keeps rolling. Anything and everything that’s said and done will be recorded and reported, whoever you are or you think you are...

A shout-out to Trevor Ncube and his team for starting up the latest independent newspaper in Zimbabwe – The Southern Eye. You are true pioneers!

We are Watching...

Melusi Sibanda – Information & Publicity Secretary ROHRZim/Bradford Bunch